Chinese growth from a German perspective

article "Chinese crackers" in auto, motor + sport 2/2011: Chinese car sales: 2005 3m, 2008 5m, 2009 8m, 2011 12m*.

Production 2011 15m*, 2015 31m*.

*projected.

"China is the main cause of delivery delays in the Mercedes C-class..."

More from issue 11/2011: China currently produces 22% of the world's cars, but this will be 32% by 2025. Over half of the world's planned increase in production capacity until 2016 will be in China.

In 2025, around a quarter of all drivers in China will be under 30 and only 10% over 60. (Germany: 7% under 30, one third over 60). The Chinese market is expected to have risen from 12.5m to 25-48m by 2025.

Citroën sold 200,000 cars in China in 2010, making it their second most important market after France. By 2020, Peugeot-Citroën plan for an 8% market share there(2m+ cars).

Presumably, there is a lot of risk that these prognoses are too optimistic.

patpending wrote:More from issue 11/2011: China currently produces 22% of the world's cars, but this will be 32% by 2025. Over half of the world's planned increase in production capacity until 2016 will be in China.

In 2025, around a quarter of all drivers in China will be under 30 and only 10% over 60. (Germany: 7% under 30, one third over 60). The Chinese market is expected to have risen from 12.5m to 25-48m by 2025.

Citroën sold 200,000 cars in China in 2010, making it their second most important market after France. By 2020, Peugeot-Citroën plan for an 8% market share there(2m+ cars).

Presumably, there is a lot of risk that these prognoses are too optimistic.

I would have thought that was a very big risk, with the Chinese now able to buy their own brand cars such as MG and many Chinese people having a not very good opinion of the French! I guess it also depends on the Chinese not holding back car sales for environmental reasons, which they already are in places like Beijing.